Link , Link , Link , Link , Link , Link , Link , Link , Link , [Bill Kristol, a longtime conservative commentator and activist who broke with the Republican Party over Trump, is now the editor at large of the center-right U.S. publication The Bulwark. Kristol sees the former president as likely to run again—and the overwhelmingly favorite to win the Republican nomination—based on a few factors: Trump is way ahead in early primary polling, apparently healthy enough to campaign, and his party hasn’t repudiated him—even after his aggressive lying about last year’s election being stolen led to a deadly attack on the U.S. Capitol on January 6. In fact, Trump’s success in mainstreaming “election denial” on the American right is keeping a lot of focus on him, and Republican voters may be convinced that they need to avenge this fabricated injustice. Kristol allows that Trump could look like “yesterday’s man” in a few years, but he believes that the former president would hate to relinquish the spotlight—or the political movement he built. Kristol warns that Trump’s return may not even be the worst-case scenario for American democracy in 2024, as a different Republican nominee could ratchet up the party’s authoritarianism and nativism even further. “The conventional view is that, if it’s not Trump, we edge back to the center,” he says. “It’s not out of the question that, if it’s not Trump, we edge further to the extreme.”]